Modeling Thailand’s Municipal Solid Waste Decarbonization: A System Dynamics Approach to Aligning MSW Management with NDC 3.0 and Net Zero 2050 Goals

This research uses a System Dynamics (SD) model to project Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in Thailand and the related Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions until 2050. The model was adjusted to the years 2008 to 2024 and is the only model to include such variables as demand due to tourism and the post-COVID recovery, in addition to the usual variables such as population, GDP, and urbanization. The model was used to assess the following four scenarios: Baseline Dynamic (BD), National Roadmap (NR), Circular Resilience (CR), and Net Zero Alignment (NZA). Results show that emissions in the BD scenario will reach 19.9 Mt CO2e by 2050, which does not meet the national

climate targets. The NR scenario is a slight improvement at 16.4 Mt CO2e. CR and NZA have significant reductions with 6.5 Mt CO2e and 4.6 Mt CO2e emissions, respectively. NZA is the only scenario that helps Thailand meet the NDC 3.0 target of a 47% reduction by 2035. The study finds diverting biodegradable waste from landfills to be an important leverage point to minimize methane generation. This approach offers a means to align circular economy strategies with specific decarbonization targets to help Thailand reach Net Zero by 2050.

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